The Beast, poised to strike
National Weather Service
Copyright © 2020
by Ralph F, Couey
I've been a part of severe weather events throughout my life, growing up with thunderstorms, tornadoes, and floods in Missouri. I've learned that nature can have its violent moments, perhaps delivering a come-comeuppance to these arrogant humans who actually think they're in charge.
Today, the state of Hawai'i is preparing for the arrival of hurricane Douglas which has been churning its way across the Pacific for the last week or so. The forecasted impacts have shifted back and forth, responding to the little wriggles in its path. Two days ago, it looked grim. The storm's path would deliver a head-on strike to the Big Island, Maui, Lana'i, and O'ahu. Since then, the track has shifted northward, and as of this evening, the Big Island is completely out of the cone. The other islands remain in the cone, but the impacts will be less than what they could have been. Kaua'i remains the one island that will get a direct hit, but again, that could change.
The storm center will pass about 30 miles north of the far northern tip of O'ahu as a weak Cat 1 or a strong tropical storm, but this island will still be subject to powerful winds in the 50-70 mph range, and up to 10 inches of rain. On an island consisting of knife-edged mountains and long, steep valleys, the flooding could be epic.
Emergency shelters are opening, businesses have boarded or taped their windows, sandbags are placed, and the Navy and Coast Guard are putting to sea as I write this. Aircraft have either been chained to the concrete or moved into storm-proof hangers. Flights out of the state have been put on hold, and the mad rush at Costco and Sam's Club, as well as Lowe's and Home Depot has started to ebb. There is a sense of the sharply defined watchfulness of the prepared.
The good news is that Douglas is galloping along at a respectable 16 to 20 mph, so it won't hang out very long in any one place.
Waiting for severe weather of any kind is an exercise in contrasts. Today, going to work, it was a beautiful, if warm and humid summer day. The trades were blowing, which made the warmth more tolerable. Looking around, I tried to imagine that same scene 24 hours hence with the sky dark and angry, rain pouring out of the sky like a vengeful firehose, and wind giving flight to anything not nailed down. It was hard to imagine such chaos in the middle of a beautiful day. But, imagination or not, it will happen. The past two days I spent working around the yard and putting loose items in safer places. The mango tree in the back has been erupting fruit for the past couple of weeks, and its likely that there'll be a bushel or two of mangoes lying in the grass by Monday morning. The house itself has survived stronger blows than Douglas, so I'm not concerned about the structure itself. Looking around the neighborhood, I saw that folks were making preparations, but nothing dramatic. No plywood over windows, for example. They've all been living here for the better part of a half-century, so they know how to prepare.
For me, the storm will be peaking right about the time I usually leave for work, so I'm re-thinking my commute. But by the time I get off at midnight, the worst should be well past. Working inside a volcano works to our advantage, as the crater walls will shield us from the worst effects of the wind. But there are many others not so prepared or situated as my immediate circle, and I am hopeful that they will survive this thing without too much grief.
I'll check back in on Monday and let you know how things worked out around here. Stay safe!!!
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