Robots and the Dark Future of Labor

"Flippie" at work on the grill

The future of food service?

 

In addition to doing our jobs at least as well as we do them, 

intelligent robots will be cheaper, faster, and far more reliable than humans. 

And they can work 168 hours a week, not just 40. 

No capitalist in her right mind would continue to employ humans.

--Kevin Drumm

Copyright © 2020

by Ralph F. Couey

except images and quote.

Robots have always held a fascination for people.  Not for just the physical and computational labor that is done, but as science fiction has shown, as companions as well.  But the actual appearance of robotic technology in our daily lives hasn't been looked upon a just around the corner.  Always it was decades, even centuries away.  But recent developments, and anticipated advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence have put us on the cusp of a paradigm shift in technology and the impact on human labor.

Robots, androids, etc. have been sci-fi staple for as long as the genre has existed.  There was Robbie from 1956's "Forbidden Planet."  Then "Robot" from the original "Lost in Space."  ("Danger, Will Robinson!)  Although with Bill Mumy, it always came out "Robut".)  C-3PO, R2-D2, and BB-8 from the Star Wars franchise.  The cute Wall-E and the nuke-wielding EVE from the eponymous Disney movie.  My personal favorite was Robin Williams' beautiful portrayal of the android Andrew in "Bicentennial Man."  And who could forget those Terminators?

These were created for entertainment purposes, for sure.  But in these portrayals we saw both the good and the horrifying sides of machine intelligence.  Robots have been active in industry for years.  I used to work with one making clutch disks for Caterpillar tractors.  It had to be monitored, in case it lost control and started flinging steel rims around the plant, but other than the set up required to move from one size disk to another, it pretty much ran by itself.  My biggest job was making sure it was resupplied with materials.  But even then, some 20 years ago, I could see a point where another intelligent machine could do that job.  The introduction of robots into the retail world has been slow, mainly in response to human sensitivities, but make no mistake, the day when robots will fit you with clothes, help you find things at Walmart, repair your car or home, take your order, cook your food, and deliver it to your table is closer than you think.

McDonald's, that transnational burger behemoth last year bought a firm named Apprente, a silicon-valley AI startup.  The system is already in testing at selected restaurants.  Also in the offing is another automated smart machine which has been named "Flippie," and is successfully cooking, assembling, and dressing perfect burgers, and other units from Japan and China who are already busily waiting tables.

The attraction of technology to the capitalist crowd has always been easy to see.  There are real fiscal advantages to these units over humans.  But the current Pandemic has put them in a whole new light.  Robots can't get COVID-19.  They don't get moody, like a typical teenager.  No vacation required.  No fatigue.  A human loses efficiency after about 40-50 hours in a week.  But robotic units don't get tired.  They can literally work around the clock with little supervision.  And most importantly, are more productive than their human counterparts.  For those in love with a technological future, it's nerd-vana.

The down side (and there always is one, right?) manifests itself in the replacement of humans in all non-skilled jobs, and even many skilled positions.  

There is also the nascent fear of turning over our lives to machines.  I don't think there's anyone alive who doesn't remember with chills the aberrant behavior of the HAL-9000 computer aboard the spaceship Discovery from the film "2001: A Space Odyssey."  For me, the scariest moment came with David Bowman waited outside the spacecraft in one of the pods in which claws held his dead crewmate Frank Poole.  Demanding that HAL open the pod bay doors led to an argument which ended with HAL's statement, "This conversation can no longer serve any useful purpose.  Goodbye."  

It wasn't until the sequel that the cause of HAL's breakdown was revealed to be a national security-related order placed in the computer's programming informing HAL of both objectives and ordering the computer not to reveal the true nature of the mission (known to the hibernating survey team) to Poole or Bowman.  As HAL's creator Dr. Chandra explained, "The situation was in conflict with the basic purpose of HAL's design: The accurate processing of information without distortion or concealment. He became trapped. HAL was told to lie... by people who find it easy to lie. HAL doesn't know how, so he couldn't function."

The lesson here, of course, is when programming an AI intelligence, assume nothing.  Even an inadvertent programming error caused by a simple lack of imagination could wreak disaster.

In 1970, Futurist Alvin Toffler wrote a book called "Future Shock," in which he discussed the dangers of too much change occurring too quickly.  The first such shock occurred in the Industrial Revolution, when the global economies shifted from primarily agriculture to factory-based industry.  Another shift occurred in the 1980's when information technology became mainstream, sparking a digital revolution in business, and at home when for the first time computers became commonplace.  I'm obviously simplifying here for the sake of space.  Now, we are facing another paradigm shift:  Artificial Intelligence. 

Robots already can perform simple uncomplicated tasks.  But they have to be programmed, to be "trained" if you will, to do those tasks.  AI will mean that these machines will not just perform rote tasks, but will be able to make judgments related to quality control and shifting conditions.  There are still limitations (for example, why didn't anybody at NASA send with the Mars rovers a simple rotating brush to keep the solar cells clean in such a dusty environment?) but those limitations are rapidly being overcome.  There are "experts" out there that predict a robotics-based economy in as little as 15 years.

In some respects, that's amazing.  But there is a far darker side on the march to that new reality.

We all remember that first job in high school.  Some of us flipped burgers, some bagged groceries and corralled grocery carts. There were Car washers as well.  With the advent of large retailers (Walmart, for example) another large segment of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs became available.  These jobs were the staple for teenagers and those on the brittle edge of the labor market.  There have been recent moves to upgrade what were supposed to be entry-level positions to pay enough to support a family.  But there are too many people out there doing jobs that they should have already progressed beyond.

It's not my point to bash American workers here, despite what you might think.  What I'm trying to convey here is the clear future where robots will do all the non- and semi-skilled labor, which means the humans who used to depend on those jobs are going to have to push themselves into a higher state of capability, or risk being shut out of the job market.

In the first shift I wrote of earlier, agricultural workers were eventually able to learn how to work the new machinery.  In the second shift, people learned how to use computers and not fear them.  Now, computers are as common as home telephones used to be.  Almost everyone is digitally competent.  But the challenge of a robotic economy means we're all going to have to learn more complicated jobs with more complex tasks.  There will be no more ditch digging jobs.  Roadwork and construction will eventually be done with robots.  If any brick-and-mortar stores still survive, they'll be served by a robotic workforce.  Even checkout lines will disappear as the radio frequency ID tags (RFID) on your purchases will be automatically scanned and charged to the card on file as you exit the store.  Or, you'll shop online and another robot will bring your groceries to your door.

This grim reality needs to be driven home to school-age children now, that they can no longer expect to find easy jobs on the market.  The future will belong to those with the foresight to arm themselves with education and training.  This future isn't far-fetched imaginary Science Fiction, but is imminent; as certain to arrive as sunrise tomorrow morning.  We can no longer blithely assume that there'll always be something out there.  

With the Pandemic, we're already seeing changes in the labor market.  People who want to work for a New York firm, for example, are already doing that from places like Phoenix, Tampa, Cleveland (really?) and other far less expensive locales.  American business is rapidly realizing that they don't need to pay for acres of office space because workers can be even more productive working at home. Sears, Macy's, Penney's, and other large retailers have been badly hurt by Amazon.  Why drive to a store when you can get whatever you want sitting in your pajamas (or less) at home?  

All I'm saying is that the world is being changed by accelerating technology, and we'd better be changing along with it.

Or risk being left behind.