Going Forward to a New Normal

HuffPost.com

Life is some days a bed of thorns, 

a puddle of mud, 

a pothole on a highway 

and it might deny you happiness 

but life is going to respond to your attitude 

and happiness is always a choice.

--RightMessages.com

Copyright © 2020

by Ralph F. Couey

Written content only

except quoted and cited portions.

There's a lot of noise these days about how the government is going to somehow get the economy and our lives back on track.  But as long as new cases of COVID-19 are appearing, and the deaths continue to mount, there will be a lot of resistance.  At the same time, everybody is wishing for "things to get back to normal" and a state of being where the word "pandemic" is not part of our daily vernacular.  

It's a laudable and desirable goal, but I think there's one thing that needs to be recognized and accepted.

We're not going back to normal.  We're going forward into a new normal.

I've thought a lot about this the past few days as the impacts of the stay-at-home orders, mandatory quarantines, and the cancellation of those social and sporting events that we now know we so desperately need.  Major League Baseball is bandying about a number of possibilities for this year, including holding all the games in the spring training complexes in and around Phoenix, Arizona in empty stadiums.  But you'd have to sequester the players for at least four months, away from family, friends, and any recreational diversions, and I just don't see the MLBPA signing off on that.  Other proposals include starting an abbreviated season late, and doing the playoffs and World Series in a neutral site like Florida or Arizona.  MLB would lose ticket revenue and would have to make do with only television revenue.  The NFL still intends to hold it's full season, starting in late August, but now the schedule has been expanded to 17 games and the playoffs enlarged by two additional wild card teams, which adds one more week to the tournament.  So, if they have to delay the start of the season, we might not see the Superbowl until late March or April.  The NCAA, NBA, and NHL are not speaking of this yet, since they have time before their respective seasons start.  All of this hinges on a return to normalcy.

But what if "normal" no longer exists?

Discussions by health professionals which have been in the news indicate that the social distancing and masking requirements might still be in place as late as 2022.  The important question, as yet unanswerable, is if the Novel Corona Virus is just one-and-done, or if it will now become a part of the annual onslaught of infectious disease that has included all the different strains of flu.  If COVID-19 becomes a perennial (to use a spring flower reference) then we might never be clear of our current requirements.  Even the most optimistic say that a viable vaccine is still a year or more away.  Even when a vaccine is available, we only need see the annual statistics on flu (30 million sick in the US, 30,000 deaths) to see that instead of being out of the woods, we'll only be deeper into the wilderness.

Fear and paranoia has now become socially institutionalized, and it will be difficult to let go of that even if the pandemic ceases to be.  Those primal emotions, rooted deep in the primitive part of the brain, will not go away easily, if ever.  

So, what will life look like, post-pandemic?

There's a whole host of possibilities which would take up way more space here than I would like, but allow me to suggest a few things to consider.

More of our interactions, social, personal, and business will be done digitally.  Businesses may shed excess square footage of office space, now that they have seen that their employees can be productive working from home.  They may still be required to come to work, but maybe only one or two days per month.  Social clubs, with built-in vetting procedures, will make a comeback, while the bar or restaurant may at the least change drastically or disappear altogether.  It's hard to think up a scenario of required social distancing and protection (masks and gloves) that would make any such venue economically viable.  A place where random strangers gather and interact just doesn't fit with the new normal. To the horror of parents, some schools may decide that it's better (and cheaper) to conduct education online rather than in a classroom.  While this may keep kids from getting sick, it also deprives them of the social interactions so necessary to their development and emotional health.  

In an extreme case, professional sports might disappear altogether.  Football, soccer, and baseball are normally held in open-air environments, but basketball and hockey are always in closed arenas where fans would be sharing their microbes in close proximity.  And those teams are mobile, which opens up a whole new disease vector.  Even visits to the doctor's office will have to change, because you can no longer have a crowded waiting room and expect to keep people and staff safe.  

Vacations?  Man, I just don't know how they can be done.  Resorts, amusement parks, even National Parks and other attractions will have to adopt procedures which will certainly include rationing the number of visitors allowed in.  There was a news report about a couple that took a cruise to Antarctica, but still came back infected with the Corona Virus.  Go figure.  For the ocean cruise industry, this just might be their death knell.  Given their track record of late, it would be hard to convince anyone not carrying a death wish to come aboard.  The airlines, who of late have been flying with nearly empty planes, would love to return to the days when every seat was filled.  But who among us would be willing to risk the exposure?  The cabins of airliners have long been known to be frighteningly filthy, from a microscopic point of view. Now it just gets worse.

Earlier this week, a pastor who insisted on holding services in defiance of the law in his church died of COVID-19.  Atheists would be quick to point to this and claim that God is not there to protect church-goers.  Most congregations, parishes, and synagogues have turned to alternative means to continue to serve their respective flocks.  I mentioned in previous posts that my denomination has turned to online services.  A good port in this current storm, but the fellowship portion that is so much a necessary part of congregational life, including those hugs and handshakes, are missing.  And that just aches.

9/11 changed a lot of things about how we go about our lives, especially air travel.  We thought at the time that these changes would be undigestible.  But we have gotten used to the new requirements and no longer think of them as impositions.  However, the changes that are coming, post-pandemic, will be far more fundamental in nature and thus far more difficult to accept.

Now, these possibilities all sound apocalyptic, the natural result of wallowing in worse case scenarios.  It might happen that once this runs its course, there will be a return to a situation that at least approximates what we think of as normal.  But we have to acknowledge that the Great Pandemic of 2020 has been, and will be a life-changing event.  Nothing will be the same anymore, and we will have to adapt to the new reality, whatever that will be.  Nobody knows, because humans, being individuals, are patently unpredictable. As one analyst opined, "Numbers are numbers.  they have there own type of perfection.  But people remain people no matter what you try to do with them."  There's just no way of knowing how we will react, as fundamental changes are forced upon us.  Will a robust economy be just a fond memory?  Will we have to accept a world where we won't have access to activities, goods and services, and recreations like before?  Will societies become less social and more isolated?  Will human contact become largely extinct.?

Like I said, nobody knows at this point.  We will just have to see how the future works itself out.  But whatever "normal" establishes itself, it will be something new, different, and perhaps, just a bit scary.  But there will still be joy in that new life, and if we are to survive, that is something we will need to find.  

And hold on to.