Copyright © 2020
by Ralph F. Couey
First off, I want to express my heartfelt gratitude to you folks who come here to read these postings. Especially now, I know there are multitudes of items and events competing for your attention and I appreciate that you choose to spend what little extra time you have reading this blog. From the bottom of this writer's heart, I thank you.
I won't rehash the sequence of events leading to the global situation that now exists. Certainly you have been informed, perhaps over-informed of what has happened. In the last two weeks in the U.S., the coronavirus and it's associated illness, COVID-19, has expanded rapidly. As of right now (00:55 HST), as I look at the Johns Hopkins dashboard, the only really accurate accounting by the way, the number of active cases are now 2,952 and 57 people have died, 40 of which are associated with the cluster at an elder care home in Kirkland, Washington. The only U.S. state still reporting zero infections is West Virginia. Globally, it seems that the outbreak has peaked in China and South Korea, thanks in large part to the draconian measures enacted by those governments. Now that Italy has put in place a nation-wide lockdown, it appears that the number of new cases is beginning to flatten out.
Coronavirus occurs in several forms, and has been around since about 8000 BCE. In recent years, this family of virus has been responsible for both SARS and MERS, as well as the current COVID-19. Digging into the statistics from CDC, you can find that nearly all of the illnesses, perhaps as much as 80%, result in either mild or completely asymptomatic (without symptoms). The high-risk demographics are the elderly with underlying medical issues, and those with compromised immune systems. Nearly all the deaths in the U.S. fall into these two descriptions. The youngest person to die from COVID-19 was a 22-year-old who was an addicted vaper. For those outside those categories, the risk is still very low.
The federal government response, while belated, has been aggressive. Overseas travel restrictions are in place and testing continues to expand as test kits are now being shipped by the millions. Undoubtedly, the numbers will increase as testing becomes more comprehensive, but things are not as bad as the media would have you believe. They never let a good crisis opportunity go to waste. If you don't believe me, look at the rates for advertising now being charged compared to about two months ago. States have moved to limit public gatherings and nearly all sports leagues and organizations have voluntarily shut down. Last week, a basketball game involving Creighton University was halted at halftime and the fans sent home. For the first time in modern memory, the one reliable diversion, sports, has been denied to us. A lot of festivals, celebrations, and events have also been scratched, including the legendary St. Patrick's Day parades in New York City and Chicago.
So, the constitutional right to free assembly has been throttled. Let's hope that's the only part of the Bill of Rights we lose.
The markets have tumbled worldwide, but still remain above 2016 levels. Structurally, there are no problems in the economic infrastructure, so the traders are reacting emotionally rather than thoughtfully. Once this pandemic runs its course, and like all the others it will, there is little doubt that the markets will quickly and completely recover. In the mean time, the more sanguine investors are picking up incredible bargains.
Globally, almost 74,000 people have recovered from the infection, so one can take heart from the fact that few of those who get the virus will die from it.
In case you're interested, the regular flu continues to march on, with some 36 million cases in the U.S. About 20,000 have died. Those are sobering numbers, especially for an illness for which we have a very effective vaccine.
The public response to COVID-19 has been...interesting. If you talk to individuals, they will express concern, but not mindless panic. But shopping patterns have been, well, out of control. COVID-19 DOES NOT CAUSE any lower GI distress, yet there has been a nationwide run on toilet paper. There have also been runs on cleaning supplies, antiseptic wipes, and hand sanitizer. Part of the shortage is due to people who saw this coming and snatched up existing supplies, hoping to turn a profit. One guy, shut out of Amazon and Ebay, is stuck with 117,000 containers of hand sanitizer and now no way to sell them. But don't feel too sorry for him, because he had already cleared a profit of $40,000 selling what he had. Others who hoarded other supplies are in similar straits. Those who are found to be price gouging are not being allowed to sell on the online marketplaces.
Another shortage is masks. People are being told regularly by experts that if you are NOT sick, the mask will not keep you from getting sick. Viruses attack mucous membranes which includes eyes and ears, which masks do not cover. If you ARE sick, the mask will keep you from spreading the virus around, but let's be honest. If you're sick, you belong at home, not roaming around in public. This demand has resulted in a shortage of masks in hospitals, doctor's offices, and urgent care facilities, those who really, really need them.
I live on an island, in a state of islands, and almost everything we eat or use comes in via cargo ships. In the 1980's, a dock strike actually resulted in no toilet paper anywhere. People have long memories, and that has in part driven the manic demand here. Late last week, statements began to appear on social media that the two biggest maritime importers, Matson and Pasha, were going to shut down for anywhere from two weeks to 60 days. Rather than calling those companies and asking, or asking the local media, people went absolutely bonkers. Now, its not just toilet paper, cleaning supplies and hand sanitizer, but food that is being swept from the shelves. Huge crowds are gathering outside the warehouse stores, and the customers inside are manifestly not behaving with Aloha. Both companies have issued statements that no such shutdown has, is, or will be occurring. The media , usually so hyper-sensitive to tweets and posts, were slow to respond. As a result, the scenes at local box stores approached riot proportions.
The most dangerous thing in emergency situations is the publishing and spreading of rumors. In what little reporting that has been done, sources for the fake shipping shutdown is described in such ways as, "my sister's husband's friend who heard it from a stranger who heard it from someone they met at the beach." Yeah. That's a totally reliable source. I can't emphasize enough for everyone to vigorously vet every rumor they hear or read, rather than just reacting. Don't be the fuel on the fire. Try to be the extinguisher instead. There are folks out there who delight in stirring up people, and will tell lies to do so, statements that won't stand up to a moment's serious examination.
I'm not minimizing this situation. But it behooves all of us to dig for the truth. Public panic never ends well, and has driven people to act violently with each other. Step back. Take a breath. Don't allow yourselves to be swept away by the wave of mindless fear. Demand proof of what you are being told, especially on social media.
This is really the first pandemic to affect Americans in the way that it has, and to be brutally honest, most of what we are reacting to is utterly unfounded. To get through this safely will require adherence to a few simple precautions, such as frequent washing of your hands, regular disinfecting of common work stations, and avoiding situations where you might encounter someone carrying the virus. If you follow these steps, there's an excellent chance you won't get sick.
This is a serious situation. But not one deserving of the mindless fear and panic in which we have indulged. Be careful. But be factual. Be truthful. And we'll all get through this.
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