Copyright © 2023
By Ralph F. Couey
Almost 90 years ago, the United States was beginning to crawl out of the depths of the Great Depression. The recovery had begun as early as 1933, but the economy suffered another severe downturn in 1937-38, but by mid-1938, growth became rapid. It would take World War II to complete the recovery. The grinding misery of that decade was the worst economic crisis of this country's history. That it coincided with the onset of the Dust Bowl, and the accompanying collapse of the farm economy in the prairie and plains states served to deepen the crisis.
Internationally, while the United States wallowed in misery, two nations, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan embarked on mutual paths towards global dominance. It seems, in retrospect, unfair that just at the point when Americans could finally draw a breath, yet another crisis loomed. Politically, the nation was deeply divided. The experience of the first World War left a sour tasted in the mouths of many. We had been dragged into a stalemated war through alliances with European governments. Many Americans were fed up with taking part in the squabbles of old countries. The word "isolationist" was coined to describe this frustration. If, they felt, America could ignore the rest of the world, then we would no longer have to send young men to fight in wars that had little to do with us. This division made its way to Washington, where the Senate and House fought endless rhetorical battles either for or against arming our friends, and strengthening the forces that would defend us. In 1935, there were only 119,000 soldiers in the Army. That is less than the number of the Blue and Grey who faced each other at Gettysburg. By 1938, however, the threat from Germany and Japan was clear, and looming was the prospect of fighting two major wars simultaneously. Even after those numbers boomed to over 8 million by 1942, there was still a strong feeling of vulnerability in those early months of the War.
In the years since, the world has endured its times of crises. War, in scattered places across the globe, has been pretty much continuous. But the big, world-circling conflict has not occurred. There were moments when things were close, the Berlin Crisis of 1961, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and two computer glitches, one by the U.S., and one by the Soviets in 1979 and 1983. But the very fragile humans who were involved managed to not push the proverbial button.
A little over a year ago, Vladimir Putin sent Russian combat forces into Ukraine. Putin's claim of the "de-Nazification" of Ukraine was and remains laughable. The world was initially horrified, then surprised that the cream of Russian soldiery did not run roughshod over their opponents. It's fair to say that as the situation stands today, Ukraine has not only successfully protected most of its territory, but also fought the mighty Russian army to a standstill. Now Putin has other problems. Many men and women of military age have fled the country. Large numbers of Russian soldiers have either defected or surrendered. The international community has not looked with approval on Putin's aggressive actions, and the mood among the Russian citizenry is not at all enthusiastic.
Americans like underdogs, and there have been loud calls for us to become more directly involved. While viscerally satisfying, this offers the nightmare scenario of U.S. troops shooting at Russian troops across a battlefield. There's no way that ends well. But Putin has not been shy about putting his superpower rival on notice. There have been numerous incidents of long-range Russian aircraft approaching U.S. airspace and met by American fighter aircraft. Last week, two Russian SU-27 fighters intercepted a U.S. predator drone, trying to dump fuel on the drone, then coming close enough to damage the propeller and drop the Predator into the ocean. This was a serious escalation.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, China has become more bellicose. Numerous instances of interceptions, and aggressive actions by PRC fighter aircraft have raised tensions. The root of the conflict here is actually easier to understand.
The coming of World War II to the Chinese mainland was coincident with the last Chinese civil war. Communist forces under Mao Zhe Dong fought a long and bloody battle with the U.S. supported nationalist forces commanded by Chiang Kai-Shek. Despite Chiang's material superiority, Mao's forces made steady gains, aided by the convincing message to peasants who were fed up with the exploitation by the wealthy. The communist forces grew. At one point, there was an agreement of sorts for both sides to concentrate on defeating the Japanese. Mao used this time to further build up his army, and in 1949, he ran the Nationalists completely out of China to Taiwan. The PRC has always referred to Taiwan as a rebellious province, which will eventually be re-taken. The United States, backing Taiwan, has pledged to pitch in if the People's Army crosses the Taiwan Strait. Lately, the Chinese have ramped up talk about Taiwan, forcing the U.S. to keep a closer eye on things.
Americans are proud of our military. For decades, we had a decided technological edge over any of our potential enemies, and the ranks were filled, not with reluctant draftees, but men and women who chose to don the uniform. The feeling was common that we would mop the floor with anyone who dared challenge us. The Russian struggles against Ukraine have firmed up that feeling.
But the truth is, we no longer hold a technological advantage. The U.S. was last through the door in the drive to develop new weapons. Our new stuff is still being tested. Theirs is operational.
The Russians several years ago developed what is called a super-cavitating torpedo. The fasted torpedo to this point ran at 70 knots (nautical miles per hour). The Russian SCT is designed to open up a pocket of air through which the weapon "flies." Air, having less resistance than water. enables the rocket-powered torpedo to attain top speed of around 300 knots. Torpedoes are crucial in modern warfare, especially against the U.S. Navy which still has enormous aircraft carriers. A modern carrier is quite fast, but will never outrun or outturn an SCT. The U.S. Navy without carriers would be a shadow of its self.
In addition, both Russia and China have achieved great strides in developing hypersonic missiles and aircraft. The fastest missile during the Cold War was the Soviet AS-4 Kitchen, which had a top speed of Mach 3+. The new technology produces a missile that flies at speeds up to Mach 20. China recently launched one that circled the earth twice before diving into the ocean. As far as I am aware, we don't have anything that could engage and destroy such a weapon. FYI, Mach 8 is around 6,100 miles per hour. As I noted earlier, the U.S. was slow to the party, and while the Russian and Chinese weapons are operational and deployed, the American versions are still under development.
We are vulnerable to a degree not seen since the early years of the Revolutionary War. We are possibly facing our second two-ocean war, for which we just don't have the horses. It took 10 million of us to defeat the Germans and Japanese. At this time, counting both active and reserve, we have just 2.1 million, many of whom are already deployed.
85 years ago, we were able to ramp up quickly. But it takes so much longer to make a recruit into a fighter because the technology is so much more complex. You just can't take someone off the street, give them a few weeks of calisthenics, and send them into combat anymore. A full-scale non-nuclear war with these modern technological weapons will move with lightning speed, and will likely end, one way or the other, in a matter of weeks, before the first wave of recruits could graduate boot camp.
The drums of war are beating again, growing nearer with each day. Will we hear them in time?
The Greatest Generation, toughened by the hard life of the thirties, met the challenge in 1941. If the two-ocean challenge rises again, can we meet it? Or perhaps more importantly, will we?
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